Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-04 7.807730 8.981133 10.247693 11.713535 13.360275 15.150037 17.239330
2026-01-11 6.042034 7.613889 9.445486 11.725615 14.475256 17.670657 21.650689
2026-01-18 5.049297 6.755628 8.845340 11.570954 15.007618 19.170430 24.564677
2026-01-25 4.361091 6.158503 8.459920 11.587909 15.688397 20.836209 27.736217
2026-02-01 3.866962 5.724861 8.197511 11.679405 16.397454 22.501826 30.918373
2026-02-08 3.408082 5.275662 7.853031 11.603850 16.843597 23.812127 33.669234
2026-02-15 3.018623 4.873425 7.521657 11.495223 17.204105 24.989834 36.261606
2026-02-22 2.739812 4.598833 7.337438 11.562879 17.789896 26.476428 39.316079
2026-03-01 2.565105 4.460976 7.334177 11.879964 18.732865 28.486223 43.169291
2026-03-08 2.292084 4.137835 7.019417 11.699061 18.921145 29.413904 45.508501
2026-03-15 1.982876 3.721962 6.522071 11.193425 18.577823 29.533580 46.659568
2026-03-22 1.876377 3.635430 6.539194 11.489261 19.465485 31.497627 50.589462
2026-03-29 1.754404 3.513253 6.492779 11.686407 20.220956 33.315461 54.410847
2026-04-05 1.593639 3.305190 6.284914 11.601726 20.519405 34.444585 57.232877
2026-04-12 1.445464 3.103549 6.068775 11.481877 20.743270 35.452933 59.890796
2026-04-19 1.331941 2.955379 5.933216 11.487015 21.166901 36.785597 63.097978
2026-04-26 1.242353 2.844259 5.854078 11.581934 21.740103 38.373364 66.760324
2026-05-03 1.138315 2.692676 5.687034 11.505498 22.010201 39.471664 69.668178
2026-05-10 1.040597 2.543346 5.511148 11.398178 22.215022 40.462354 72.427228
2026-05-17 0.972331 2.449247 5.433345 11.465158 22.726206 41.977757 76.095666
2026-05-24 0.936551 2.422592 5.485785 11.779956 23.694677 44.299917 81.184375
2026-05-31 0.852460 2.277978 5.288980 11.600370 23.749186 45.052695 83.647836
2026-06-07 0.745899 2.068618 4.940945 11.098497 23.175772 44.684570 84.176124